Iris Glosemeyer
One year into "Operation Decisive Storm", relabeled "Operation Restoring Hope", the Saudi war efforts were neither decisive nor did they restore hope. The only winners are militant organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula [AQAP] and Daesh.
More than 20 of Yemen’s population of 25 million are in need of humanitarian aid. The UN reports that about 3,000 civilians have been killed and tens of thousands have been injured. Sanaa has been out of electricity for five months. Attempting to instigate sectarian strife similar to that in Iraq, Sunni militants - many of them from abroad - have killed hundreds of civilians by attacking mosques and worshippers of Zaydis in a country where Shia Zaydis and Sunni Shafi’is used to pray together.
10% of Yemenis are internally displaced
Unsurprisingly, this war produced yet another type of refugee. According to the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs [OCHA] up to 2.5 million Yemenis - about ten per cent of the population - have been internally displaced so far. They have few options for leaving the country either because of a lack of means or because of the increasingly restrictive visa policies of their brotherly Arab countries and the fact that almost all foreign embassies in Yemen are closed.
Nevertheless, creative and experienced with hardships, many Yemenis found a way out. They mainly went to Egypt and Jordan, but also to East Africa, including to Somalia, sometimes using the same means of transport that the African refugees used to escape to Yemen. A small portion of mainly well-educated Yemenis made it to Europe, the United States or the Far East.
UN agencies estimate that about 170,000 Yemenis have left the country since the beginning of the war. The damage this brain-drain is doing to the economy adds to the harm done to the infrastructure, already in dire need of heavy investment before the air raids, and the damage to the underdeveloped private sector.
With the war in Yemen, migratory flows have reversed: East Africans and Yemenis who flee the country now for the first time outnumber those who use Yemen as a stop-over to Gulf states.
No money, no war?
With Western media focusing on Syria, the international community is slow to react to this political and humanitarian disaster, which propels Yemen into the dark ages. Many aid agencies have pulled out, leaving the door wide open to those who spread anti-western propaganda, not only Al-Qaeda and Daesh, but also other parties. President Hadi seems absorbed by efforts to ensure his own survival and possible return to the capital at the cost of a war that is wrecking the country’s society and economy - including basic social security networks provided by family, village communities and tribes.
Meanwhile, his main ally, the Saudi government, is struggling with the cost of domestic subsidies, the military intervention in Yemen and support for regional governments while the oil price dropped below $30 per barrel and youth unemployment is high. If Saudi Arabia does not cut spending, the state coffers could be empty by 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund. Massive immigration - whether East Africans or Yemenis - is the last thing Saudi Arabia needs, but its actions point the other way.
In the worst case, Yemen has to wait until the conflict parties run out of money. In the best case, the international community takes off the velvet gloves when dealing with the conflict parties.
Source: MEM, Edited by Website Team
